An average of three recent opinion polls (here, here and here) shows that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)- and Janata Dal (United)(JD(U))-led alliances are locked in a statistical dead heat in the 2015 Bihar state election. This is a very creditable performance for the BJP. The party was long overshadowed by its partner of two …
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Some proof required
There’s been much heated debate about Surjit Bhalla’s August 29 and September 5 Indian Express op-eds in which he argued: “the only explanation for the constancy of the share of the Christian population between 1991 and 2011 (2.32% and 2.3% respectively) is large scale conversion to Christianity”. https://twitter.com/priyankac19/status/638559051601674240 https://twitter.com/surjitbhalla/status/640060710744010752 The crux of Bhalla’s argument is that because …
Why the BJP should worry about Rajasthan’s local election results
Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC) claimed victory in the August 17 urban local body elections in Rajasthan. https://twitter.com/minhazmerchant/status/635438405292158976 https://twitter.com/INCIndia/status/634275491671748616 Both sides seem to have a point: the BJP won decisively while the INC strongly improved its performance in comparison with the 2013 state and the 2014 general elections. …
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Could prison save your life?
The 62nd anniversary of the death of the Bharatiya Janata Party founder Shyama Prasad Mukherjee while in custody in Srinagar sparked discussion about the party's alliance with the quasi-separatist Peoples Democratic Party. But a more interesting tangent for me is the still grim reality of custodial deaths in Indian prisons and police stations. The numbers …
What’s your beef, Mr Naqvi?
The Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi seems to have very specific views about Indians who wish to to eat beef. https://twitter.com/redditindia/status/601633825303764992 His boss, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, famously criticised the United Progressive Alliance government for facilitating beef exports (which he termed a "pink revolution"), and repeatedly visited this theme during his …
Selection bias and land acquisition data
What proportion of industrial projects are being held up by land acquisition challenges? A somewhat abstruse debate entered the mainstream after Rahul Gandhi cited Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data (provided by the Finance Ministry) in a 12 May Lok Sabha speech: https://twitter.com/OfficeOfRG/status/598070175515021312 Although I have argued elsewhere that the 8% figure may be an …
Modi’s land amendment would do very little for stalled projects
Thanks to a Right to Information request to the Ministry of Finance by Venkatesh Nayak of the Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative, we have more detail regarding how many industrial projects are being held up by land acquisition difficulties. The data were collected by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) and analysed in Chapter 4 (PDF) …
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The National Pension Scheme’s bond funds may be riskier than its equity funds
A series of favourable budget announcements have revived interest in India's National Pension Scheme (NPS), a "defined contribution" pension plan that invests in a diversified basket of financial assets such as stocks, corporate bonds and government securities. Its chief advantage over existing government-sponsored pension plans is that it allows subscribers to invest in equities (up to 50% of …
Continue reading The National Pension Scheme’s bond funds may be riskier than its equity funds
Some television commentary
Yours truly managed to inveigle himself into a few TV studio discussions around the Delhi state election, and here are the links for anyone interested. Issues vs. drama in the Delhi election campaign A focussed, non-partisan discussion (video here) Reading the Delhi exit polls A heated political debate ensued (consisting mostly of ad hominem attacks by political spokespersons) …
Manufacturing a surprise
With all the flak that that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) got for its "policy paralysis" and anti-growth policies (apparently both can simultaneously occur), one would hardly have expected a sharp economic revival in its final year in office. However, new and improved government economic data shows that in 2013-14 (i.e. the fiscal year ending …
Chunauti 