Is the Modi Effect waning? (What Jammu and Jharkhand tell us)

The recent state elections in Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand went well for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but the results have also sparked speculation as to whether the Narendra Modi effect is beginning to wane. Congress Party MP Rajeev Satav seems to think so (and was retweeted by Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal): …

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An aggressive Indian border stance would play into the Pakistan Army’s hands

It's no surprise that the escalation of cross-border tensions in the midst of two important state elections has led Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other officials to issue tough statements to Pakistan. However there is also some evidence that the government is actually considering a change in its current stance of letting officers on the ground respond to …

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Manmohan years still most peaceful despite riots uptick in 2012/13

In a pointed analysis on Scroll.in using data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), Shivam Vij shows that the rate of rioting in India (per 100,000 population) has fallen continuously since 1992, reaching a plateau around 2003 and remaining pretty much constant since then. Vij is correct that the Manmohan Singh years have been the most …

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And the winner is…

Never mind the general election, real geeks want to know who won the battle of the exit polls. The contestants, as many will recall, were: https://twitter.com/MilanV/status/466006320781733888 And judging from the result and the accolades that followed, Today's Chanakya was the clear winner. https://twitter.com/aks912/status/467357266312560640 But not so fast. To make election predictions under India's first-past-the-post system, polling agencies …

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Is AAP India’s most criminal party?

With candidates declared for six of the nine rounds of voting in this never-ending general election, a partial analysis can now be done of how many stand accused of criminal activity and in what proportion parties are awarding tickets to such folks (data from National Election Watch, also see preliminary analysis here). The chart below …

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