And the winner is…

Never mind the general election, real geeks want to know who won the battle of the exit polls. The contestants, as many will recall, were: https://twitter.com/MilanV/status/466006320781733888 And judging from the result and the accolades that followed, Today's Chanakya was the clear winner. https://twitter.com/aks912/status/467357266312560640 But not so fast. To make election predictions under India's first-past-the-post system, polling agencies …

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How opinion polls fared in the last two general elections

As more and more opinion polls hit the headlines, it's worth recalling how they fared in the two most recent general elections: 2004 https://twitter.com/PankajPachauri/status/408269945563136000 2009 https://twitter.com/PankajPachauri/status/444016247303176192 Note: The figures in parentheses under the NDA and UPA columns are the respective seat tallies of the BJP and Congress Party.

Should opinion polls be banned?

Despite my critique of their use of communal violence data, the India Today Group graciously invited me to participate in a panel discussion on opinion polling at the India Today Conclave 2014 on Saturday, Mar 8. I made the following points: Parliamentary seat projections should be treated with skepticism because there is no simple relationship between …

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