No end of the road for the Congress

Here's a look at the Congress Party's national prospects, first published as an oped in the Hindustan Times: https://twitter.com/htTweets/status/736021072424886273 After a merciless series of election defeats since 2014, it’s tempting to write off the Congress as a leading national force. With few visible signs of a Congress revival, some argue that India’s regional parties are now the …

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Ab ki baar, cut-and-paste sarkar: the case of Make in India

In his 25 Sep 2014 speech at the launch of Make in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi described the initiative as a "lion’s step" towards promoting Indian manufacturing and generating millions of jobs. Amitabh Kant, who oversees the programme, stated in a subsequent interview that "Make in India is like a movement reflecting a new mindset of growth in …

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H is for Hawk

In an Indian Express op-ed on 11 January, political scientist Paul Staniland argues that we shouldn’t lose too much sleep over Pathankot-style terror strikes because “despite understandable public outcry and past success, these spoiler attacks will be increasingly ineffective for the Pakistani military and its non-state allies”. One reason for this, he argues, is that …

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Bihar may be an uphill battle for the BJP

An average of three recent opinion polls (here, here and here) shows that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)- and Janata Dal (United)(JD(U))-led alliances are locked in a statistical dead heat in the 2015 Bihar state election. This is a very creditable performance for the BJP. The party was long overshadowed by its partner of two …

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Why the BJP should worry about Rajasthan’s local election results

Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC) claimed victory in the August 17 urban local body elections in Rajasthan. https://twitter.com/minhazmerchant/status/635438405292158976 https://twitter.com/INCIndia/status/634275491671748616 Both sides seem to have a point: the BJP won decisively while the INC strongly improved its performance in comparison with the 2013 state and the 2014 general elections. …

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Too early to proclaim a revival in the BJP’s Kerala fortunes

In a previous blog post, we considered the possibility that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s strong performance in the Aruvikkara assembly constituency by-election marked the beginning of its revival in the state of Kerala. A closer examination of BJP leader O Rajagopal's previous election record suggests that this by-election result is a one-off, rather than the beginning …

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The Congress should thank the BJP for its Aruvikkara assembly win

Shortly before the counting of votes in Kerala's Aruvikkara assembly by-election, Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan make the startling claim that the entry into the contest of veteran Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader O Rajagopalan had made it difficult for his party to unseat the incumbent Indian National Congress (INC). He was right. The …

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Gassing about LPG

In a recent interview, Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed full credit for transferring LPG subsidies directly to consumers. He also took a potshot at the Congress Party, saying that "the so-called pro-poor have been just repeating that there is leakage in subsidy", implying that his government had done all the heavy lifting here. The Modi government's achievements with …

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Is the Modi Effect waning? (What Jammu and Jharkhand tell us)

The recent state elections in Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand went well for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but the results have also sparked speculation as to whether the Narendra Modi effect is beginning to wane. Congress Party MP Rajeev Satav seems to think so (and was retweeted by Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal): …

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