How can Modi be beaten in 2019? Following the Bharatiya Janata Party’s byelection reverses last week, the consensus in the commentariat clearly leans towards a grand alliance (or mahagathbandhan) of opposition parties of the sort that humbled BJP in Bihar in 2015 and in three recent Uttar Pradesh parliamentary byelections. The subtext is that an …
Continue reading Watch out BJP, you’re trailing behind the UPA in your bypoll performance
An Economic Times (ET) report on 26 Apr credited the newly elected Bharatiya Janata Party government in Uttar Pradesh (UP) for a dramatic turnaround in the state’s electricity situation. The news report claimed that UP had “shed blackouts within a month of the BJP taking over the reins, moving from perennially running short of electricity …
Continue reading Spinning an electricity turnaround in Uttar Pradesh
There’s nothing like the word Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) to make even the most boosterish Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporter sweat a little. And it’s not just because of what happened in Bihar in 2015, when an alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United) and Indian National Congress (INC) inflicted a defeat on the …
Continue reading The compelling logic of a Grand Alliance in UP
Now that the dust has settled on the Bharatiya Janata Party’s historic victory in Uttar Pradesh, let’s get down to the big question: how close does it get the ruling National Democratic Alliance to a Rajya Sabha majority, and when? The government’s minority status in the RS has slowed and even halted important elements of …
As counting day on 11 March approaches, it seems as difficult as ever to gauge which way the political wind in Uttar Pradesh (UP) is blowing. Even before the campaign began, pre-election opinion polls offered little help, showing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance neck and neck, with the Bahujan …
Continue reading Uttar Pradesh is the BJP’s to lose. Or is it?
Here's a look at the Congress Party's national prospects, first published as an oped in the Hindustan Times: https://twitter.com/htTweets/status/736021072424886273 After a merciless series of election defeats since 2014, it’s tempting to write off the Congress as a leading national force. With few visible signs of a Congress revival, some argue that India’s regional parties are now the …
Voter turnout in the first three rounds of India's general election has shown a distinct increase by historical standards, particularly in some of the more populous states. https://twitter.com/MilanV/status/454435873321263104 This has given rise to speculation that this is bad news for the incumbent United Progressive Alliance (UPA). https://twitter.com/cvoter/status/454517133767372800 The UPA is clearly trailing in opinion polls, …
Continue reading No obvious correlation between turnout and anti-incumbency
It seems clear that Uttar Pradesh (UP) with its 80 Lok Sabha seats is the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) biggest bet in this election and that Narendra Modi is standing from Varanasi in order to boost the BJP's prospects across eastern UP. The BJP's man in UP Amit Shah certainly seems gung-ho: https://twitter.com/AmitShahOffice/status/445149004595097600 With a couple of …
Continue reading Why Modi may have a fight on his hands in Varanasi
Chunauti 